This is a great article by Tim Kawakami about the state of the NBA’s Western Conference teams — not their championship/playoff hopes for next season, or even the season after that, but for the next 3-5 years. I disagree on some points though:

#1: I don’t agree with the Spurs being #4. I think their window is only a year or two, because after that, Duncan will be on his last legs and they have NO replacement plan for him. The Duncan-Ginobili-Parker triumvirate will keep them competitive for the time-being, but is it enough to beat the Lakers, Celtics, Hornets or any other contender? Bump the Rockets up one spot.

#2: I’m uncomfortable puttingHouston at #5, but here’s what I’m thinking. I love the make-up of their team right now, with Artest in the fold. But Yao has proved that he can’t play more than 60 games a season, and T-Mac is not exactly an ironman either. Also, nobody on this team has really proved that they are a legitimate leader or winner. I really think they have 1 chance to win it all in the next four years, and that will be that magical season when everyone is healthy for the playoffs.

#3: What to do with my Warriors? I think this is a probably a spot or two too high for us. While I like our moves this summer, I think this is still a “Don-Nelson” roster on a team that might only be coached by Don Nelson for one or two more years. What do we do after that? We’ll have to change the makeup of the team, and that will push our window back further. And while I like Mullin at the helm because he usually makes smart decisions, he’s been unable to bring in a franchise player like KG or Brand during his watch. I think #9 is a more accurate spot for us.

Dallas, while aging, has Mark Cuban’s cash to woo some legit talent after Kidd’s contract expires. Phoenix still has the potential for life without Nash with Amare, Barbosa and Diaw.

Here’s my updated rankings:

#1: Lakers
#2: Hornets (their time is now, while Blazers have to wait)
#3: Blazers
#4: Rockets
#5: Spurs
#6: Jazz
#7: Mavericks
#8: Suns
#9: Warriors
#10: OKC (I believe in Sam Presti)
#11: Clippers (They’ll never win with this team)
#12: Grizzlies (Gay, Mayo and some cap space)
#13: Nuggets (Melo + Kiki + fairly desirable FA destination)
#14: Wolves (some young talent but McHale will mess it up somehow)
#15: Kings (nobody wants to play in Sacramento)