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Re-ranking the West’s future

This is a great article by Tim Kawakami about the state of the NBA’s Western Conference teams — not their championship/playoff hopes for next season, or even the season after that, but for the next 3-5 years. I disagree on some points though:

#1: I don’t agree with the Spurs being #4. I think their window is only a year or two, because after that, Duncan will be on his last legs and they have NO replacement plan for him. The Duncan-Ginobili-Parker triumvirate will keep them competitive for the time-being, but is it enough to beat the Lakers, Celtics, Hornets or any other contender? Bump the Rockets up one spot.

#2: I’m uncomfortable puttingHouston at #5, but here’s what I’m thinking. I love the make-up of their team right now, with Artest in the fold. But Yao has proved that he can’t play more than 60 games a season, and T-Mac is not exactly an ironman either. Also, nobody on this team has really proved that they are a legitimate leader or winner. I really think they have 1 chance to win it all in the next four years, and that will be that magical season when everyone is healthy for the playoffs.

#3: What to do with my Warriors? I think this is a probably a spot or two too high for us. While I like our moves this summer, I think this is still a “Don-Nelson” roster on a team that might only be coached by Don Nelson for one or two more years. What do we do after that? We’ll have to change the makeup of the team, and that will push our window back further. And while I like Mullin at the helm because he usually makes smart decisions, he’s been unable to bring in a franchise player like KG or Brand during his watch. I think #9 is a more accurate spot for us.

Dallas, while aging, has Mark Cuban’s cash to woo some legit talent after Kidd’s contract expires. Phoenix still has the potential for life without Nash with Amare, Barbosa and Diaw.

Here’s my updated rankings:

#1: Lakers
#2: Hornets (their time is now, while Blazers have to wait)
#3: Blazers
#4: Rockets
#5: Spurs
#6: Jazz
#7: Mavericks
#8: Suns
#9: Warriors
#10: OKC (I believe in Sam Presti)
#11: Clippers (They’ll never win with this team)
#12: Grizzlies (Gay, Mayo and some cap space)
#13: Nuggets (Melo + Kiki + fairly desirable FA destination)
#14: Wolves (some young talent but McHale will mess it up somehow)
#15: Kings (nobody wants to play in Sacramento)

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All it took was $7-8 mil in cap space and a 2010 SECOND ROUND PICK to trade for Marcus Camby??? The Nuggets are so lame…they could have at least gotten a couple of first round picks (esp. since it’s the Clippers and they’ll suck into forever-tude), some cash, and/or a young player or two…this isn’t some scrub. This is the former Defensive Player of the Year who averaged 13 rpg and 3.6 blk last year! Mullin is lame for not being in the loop. Biedrins-Camby-Wright would have been the longest frontcourt in the league.

All it took was $7-8 mil in cap space and a 2010 SECOND ROUND PICK to trade for Marcus Camby??? The Nuggets are so lame…they could have at least gotten a couple of first round picks (esp. since it’s the Clippers and they’ll suck into forever-tude), some cash, and/or a young player or two…this isn’t some scrub. This is the former Defensive Player of the Year who averaged 13 rpg and 3.6 blk last year!

Mullin is lame for not being in the loop. Biedrins-Camby-Wright would have been the longest frontcourt in the league.

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Turtle Power! With Corey Maggette signing with the Warriors, he can now pair with Al Harrington to form the first all Teenage-Mutant-Ninja-Turtle frontcourt in NBA history. I’m actually a fan of this move. Granted, I’d rather have Brand, but he was never coming to GS. My second choice would have been to keep Baron, but a $65 mil deal is pretty rich for a guy with a lot of baggage, and he probably wouldn’t even have stayed if we matched the Clipper’s offer. Maggette gives us a dimension that we didn’t have last year: somebody who will consistently get to the free throw line. Our starting lineup — with Monta, Sjax, Maggette, Al and Biedrins — suddenly becomes pretty good from the line, whereas it was shaky with Baron in there. Our offense is now very balanced and dynamic, with Monta using his midrange game and getting to the rim, Sjax and Al bombing away from outside, Biedrins cleaning up inside and catching passes, and Maggette slashing through defenses. If we’re able to snatch away Turiaf from the Lakers — I’d put our chances at about 40% right now — we’d add the toughness and rebounding that we really needed last year. The Millsap / Brandon Bass-type force. Hopefully Richard Hendrix and Brandon Wright can provide some energy as well. Are we done? We’re still in the running for a backup PG. One with range and experience would be preferable. I don’t think Keyon Dooling is the answer. As stupid as it may sound, I think someone like Jason Williams would really fit the bill. Yes, he hasn’t improved in years. Yes, he can’t defend anyone. But he can run the offense, make plays, shoot the 3, and get out on the break in Nellie’s system. And he’ll be cheap. He’d take the pressure off of Monta, who will be our starting PG next year. Carlos Arroyo is another option, but he’s more of a halfcourt-type PG. I heard Barnes is gone, which I’m sad about. He brought a lot of intangibles. But he wasn’t worth a long-term contract. I’d really like to bring back Kelenna Azuibuke and (obviously) lock up Monta and Biedrins. I’m not crying any tears over losing Pietrus, as long as we re-sign Kelenna. Projected Lineup: PG: Monta Ellis, <player to be signed>, CJ Watson SG: Stephen Jackson, Kelenna Azuibuke SF: Corey Maggette, Marco Bellinelli, Anthony Randolph PF: Al Harrington, Brandan Wright, Richard Hendrix C: Andris Biedrins, <Rony Turiaf> Are we a playoff team? Who knows. People are sliding the Blazers into that 8th spot, but I think we have as good a roster as they do (Monta/Sjax/Maggette/Biedrins >= Roy/Aldridge/Oden). We’ll see how things shake out in an offseason that has become much more interesting than I expected. I’m still not ruling out the possibility of a deal that lands us Kirk Hinrich and a big man (Nocioni?) for Al and someone else (Brandan Wright?). That makes a lot of sense to me.

Turtle Power!

With Corey Maggette signing with the Warriors, he can now pair with Al Harrington to form the first all Teenage-Mutant-Ninja-Turtle frontcourt in NBA history.

I’m actually a fan of this move. Granted, I’d rather have Brand, but he was never coming to GS. My second choice would have been to keep Baron, but a $65 mil deal is pretty rich for a guy with a lot of baggage, and he probably wouldn’t even have stayed if we matched the Clipper’s offer. Maggette gives us a dimension that we didn’t have last year: somebody who will consistently get to the free throw line. Our starting lineup — with Monta, Sjax, Maggette, Al and Biedrins — suddenly becomes pretty good from the line, whereas it was shaky with Baron in there.

Our offense is now very balanced and dynamic, with Monta using his midrange game and getting to the rim, Sjax and Al bombing away from outside, Biedrins cleaning up inside and catching passes, and Maggette slashing through defenses. If we’re able to snatch away Turiaf from the Lakers — I’d put our chances at about 40% right now — we’d add the toughness and rebounding that we really needed last year. The Millsap / Brandon Bass-type force. Hopefully Richard Hendrix and Brandon Wright can provide some energy as well.

Are we done? We’re still in the running for a backup PG. One with range and experience would be preferable. I don’t think Keyon Dooling is the answer. As stupid as it may sound, I think someone like Jason Williams would really fit the bill. Yes, he hasn’t improved in years. Yes, he can’t defend anyone. But he can run the offense, make plays, shoot the 3, and get out on the break in Nellie’s system. And he’ll be cheap. He’d take the pressure off of Monta, who will be our starting PG next year. Carlos Arroyo is another option, but he’s more of a halfcourt-type PG.

I heard Barnes is gone, which I’m sad about. He brought a lot of intangibles. But he wasn’t worth a long-term contract. I’d really like to bring back Kelenna Azuibuke and (obviously) lock up Monta and Biedrins. I’m not crying any tears over losing Pietrus, as long as we re-sign Kelenna.

Projected Lineup:

PG: Monta Ellis, <player to be signed>, CJ Watson

SG: Stephen Jackson, Kelenna Azuibuke

SF: Corey Maggette, Marco Bellinelli, Anthony Randolph

PF: Al Harrington, Brandan Wright, Richard Hendrix

C: Andris Biedrins, <Rony Turiaf>

Are we a playoff team? Who knows. People are sliding the Blazers into that 8th spot, but I think we have as good a roster as they do (Monta/Sjax/Maggette/Biedrins >= Roy/Aldridge/Oden). We’ll see how things shake out in an offseason that has become much more interesting than I expected. I’m still not ruling out the possibility of a deal that lands us Kirk Hinrich and a big man (Nocioni?) for Al and someone else (Brandan Wright?). That makes a lot of sense to me.

QUOTE
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WE BELIEVE…we’re in a lot of pain right now.

2008 Golden State Warriors offseason…Where “Ain’t That a Bitch?” Happens.

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— Goldenstateofmind.com
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This is a horrible, horrible day in Warriors history. Losing our franchise player with absolutely nothing to show for it erases all of our recent success and puts us back in the NBA dark ages. You need an elite point guard to compete in the West, and all of a sudden, we&#8217;re dreadfully thin at PG. If Arenas doesn&#8217;t take our offer, we&#8217;ll be stuck with a PG free agent pool with the likes of Chris Duhon, Anthony Carter, Carlos Arroyo, Jason Williams and Anthony Johnson. After having a day to stew it over, I really don&#8217;t think that we could have done anything about it. Baron wanted to be in LA. It&#8217;s his hometown and his film/directing career is supposedly on the rise. He wants to rub noses with Hollywood bigwigs. Nobody just gives up $17.8 million. That&#8217;s more than a fourth of his new 5-year, $65 million deal with the Clippers. Nothing short of throwing the max his way (6-years, $100+) would have kept him in GS, and do we really want to do that with Monta/Biedrins still needing extensions and Baron&#8217;s health always a question mark? I&#8217;m not sure on the particulars, but perhaps there&#8217;s a way to salvage the situation with a sign-and-trade with the Clippers. Since free agents can&#8217;t formally sign until July 9th, perhaps we can work a sign-and-trade for somebody like Maggette (who the Clips have to let go to sign Baron and Brand) that gives both guys a better deal than they can sign elsewhere and gives us something to show for losing Baron. Maggette&#8217;s not a superstar, but he fits decently into our system &#8212; he can score and get to the line, which complements our outside shooters. So what now? Assuming Monta and Biedrins sign, we shift Monta to the PG spot and Stephen Jackson to SG and play a more traditional backcourt. Maybe this means that we try to resign Barnes (Dallas is interested) or Pietrus (Miami/Orlando interested), both who are unrestricted free agents. We&#8217;ll see what happens in the next few days, but Mullin has a lot of work to do to right this ship.

This is a horrible, horrible day in Warriors history. Losing our franchise player with absolutely nothing to show for it erases all of our recent success and puts us back in the NBA dark ages. You need an elite point guard to compete in the West, and all of a sudden, we’re dreadfully thin at PG. If Arenas doesn’t take our offer, we’ll be stuck with a PG free agent pool with the likes of Chris Duhon, Anthony Carter, Carlos Arroyo, Jason Williams and Anthony Johnson.

After having a day to stew it over, I really don’t think that we could have done anything about it. Baron wanted to be in LA. It’s his hometown and his film/directing career is supposedly on the rise. He wants to rub noses with Hollywood bigwigs. Nobody just gives up $17.8 million. That’s more than a fourth of his new 5-year, $65 million deal with the Clippers. Nothing short of throwing the max his way (6-years, $100+) would have kept him in GS, and do we really want to do that with Monta/Biedrins still needing extensions and Baron’s health always a question mark?

I’m not sure on the particulars, but perhaps there’s a way to salvage the situation with a sign-and-trade with the Clippers. Since free agents can’t formally sign until July 9th, perhaps we can work a sign-and-trade for somebody like Maggette (who the Clips have to let go to sign Baron and Brand) that gives both guys a better deal than they can sign elsewhere and gives us something to show for losing Baron. Maggette’s not a superstar, but he fits decently into our system — he can score and get to the line, which complements our outside shooters.

So what now? Assuming Monta and Biedrins sign, we shift Monta to the PG spot and Stephen Jackson to SG and play a more traditional backcourt. Maybe this means that we try to resign Barnes (Dallas is interested) or Pietrus (Miami/Orlando interested), both who are unrestricted free agents. We’ll see what happens in the next few days, but Mullin has a lot of work to do to right this ship.

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I&#8217;m satisfied with the Warriors&#8217; moves in the draft. We got good value for where we were drafting from, and I didn&#8217;t think we passed over anyone that we should have taken. Anthony Randolph - 6&#8217;10&#8221;, 197 lbs from LSU - Okay, first of all&#8230;197 lbs? Will Pan weighs 197 and I don&#8217;t think he&#8217;s 6&#8217;10&#8221;. He&#8217;s a stick. We already have a stick in Brandon Wright. Now we have 2 undersized project big men. He seems to be a prolific scorer though and he&#8217;s really confident, so let&#8217;s see what happens. NBA Player Comparison: Chris Bosh Richard Hendrix - 6&#8217;9&#8221;, 250 lbs from Alabama - NOT a stick! From what I hear, he&#8217;s got huge hands and an NBA body, and he can really rebound and provide energy. This is EXACTLY what we needed, someone in the Brandon Bass, Jason Maxiell, Paul Millsap mold. Let&#8217;s hope he sticks with the team. NBA Player Comparison: Paul Millsap. We just added Chris Bosh and Paul Millsap! Whoo-hoo!

I’m satisfied with the Warriors’ moves in the draft. We got good value for where we were drafting from, and I didn’t think we passed over anyone that we should have taken.

Anthony Randolph - 6’10”, 197 lbs from LSU - Okay, first of all…197 lbs? Will Pan weighs 197 and I don’t think he’s 6’10”. He’s a stick. We already have a stick in Brandon Wright. Now we have 2 undersized project big men. He seems to be a prolific scorer though and he’s really confident, so let’s see what happens. NBA Player Comparison: Chris Bosh

Richard Hendrix - 6’9”, 250 lbs from Alabama - NOT a stick! From what I hear, he’s got huge hands and an NBA body, and he can really rebound and provide energy. This is EXACTLY what we needed, someone in the Brandon Bass, Jason Maxiell, Paul Millsap mold. Let’s hope he sticks with the team. NBA Player Comparison: Paul Millsap.

We just added Chris Bosh and Paul Millsap! Whoo-hoo!

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For the next couple of hours, I&#8217;ll be watching the 2008 NBA Draft. I&#8217;ll be closely watching what the Warriors will do at #14 and #49. I hate how we always draft big guys, but I think this year we really do need some size. We&#8217;ve been linked to guys like Kosta Koufas (7&#8217;1&#8221; big guy who can shoot and is supposedly fairly athletic), Donte&#8217; Green (a 6&#8217;9&#8221; forward kind of like Rashard Lewis) and Jason Thompson (a 6&#8217;11&#8221; guy who defends and rebounds). I&#8217;m not high on any of these guys, but if I had to choose, I&#8217;d take the gritty guy who can hustle, scrap and rebound over the guy with the offensive skills. Deep down, I&#8217;m hoping that we somehow manage to trade Baron for Billups/Rasheed. Some others guy I like in the draft (besides the obvious Rose/Beasley/Mayo triumvirate): Eric Gordon Russell Westbrook Brandon Rush Chris Douglas-Roberts Bill Walker

For the next couple of hours, I’ll be watching the 2008 NBA Draft. I’ll be closely watching what the Warriors will do at #14 and #49. I hate how we always draft big guys, but I think this year we really do need some size. We’ve been linked to guys like Kosta Koufas (7’1” big guy who can shoot and is supposedly fairly athletic), Donte’ Green (a 6’9” forward kind of like Rashard Lewis) and Jason Thompson (a 6’11” guy who defends and rebounds). I’m not high on any of these guys, but if I had to choose, I’d take the gritty guy who can hustle, scrap and rebound over the guy with the offensive skills.

Deep down, I’m hoping that we somehow manage to trade Baron for Billups/Rasheed.

Some others guy I like in the draft (besides the obvious Rose/Beasley/Mayo triumvirate):

Eric Gordon

Russell Westbrook

Brandon Rush

Chris Douglas-Roberts

Bill Walker

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